-newsobserver.com
Look for the Triangle to outperform the national economy as the country rebounds from the recession next year, says Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
“I think 2010 will be a surprisingly good year,” Vitner said. “It isn’t going to be one of our best years, but I think expectations may be a little too low right now.”
That upbeat assessment doesn’t extend to jobs, however.
Vitner projects that unemployment in the Triangle, which stood at 8.9 percent in October, will top out around 9.5 percent in the spring or early summer before beginning to recede. The Triangle is faring better than the state as a whole, which posted a 10.8 percent jobless rate for November.
The continued influx of newcomers from less-fortunate regions, as well as the return to the work force of people who were too discouraged to look for work during the recession, will keep the local unemployment rate high by historical standards even as new jobs are being created, Vitner said. The jobless rate accounts only for people actively seeking jobs.
Strength in the technology and pharmaceutical/biotechnology sectors will be a plus for the Triangle next year, said Vitner, because they are expected to fare relatively well. So will the Triangle’s ability to attract new businesses and expansions.
“One of the keys to Raleigh’s future is that it is still seen as a highly desirable place to do business,” said Vitner.
In recent months the number of positive corporate announcements, such as expansions and corporate relocations, has outstripped negative announcements such as layoffs in the Triangle, Vitner said. Companies making upbeat news typically cite the good business climate and a skilled labor force - as well as, in many cases, incentives offered by state and local governments - for their moves.
Among the good news lately: Investment banking giant Credit Suisse said it would hire about 300 additional workers in Research Triangle Park; Talecris Biotherapeutics intends to create 259 jobs in Johnston County; risk-management consulting firm IEM is moving its headquarters from Louisiana to RTP, where it expects to create 430 local jobs over the next six years; and LED maker Cree plans to boost its Durham payroll by 575 workers.